After a little time crunching the numbers, I came up with a bracket projection to share with you guys. First, I’m basing my bracket on the following assumptions: Florida beating Arkansas in the SEC title game, North Carolina beating NC State, Kansas beating Texas and Ohio State beating Wisconsin. Disclaimer: If there’s an upset in any of those games, it could impact the bracket.

Now, let me address who I have in and who I have out. Obviously, nobody knows what the committee is thinking, but here’s my best guess:

Final teams in:

Illinois — Some nice wins, no terrible losses, 9-7 road/neutral record, good showing in the conference tournament

Georgia Tech - Has 8 wins against RPI top 50; terrible road record but the quality wins are hard to ignore; also went 7-3 in last 10

Drexel — The 14-5 road/neutral record will be enough to get them in; the Villanova and Syracuse wins are key

Purdue — A 10-8 record against top 100 is just enough to get them in.

Air Force — Solid RPI, 9-7 in road/neutral games, 7-5 against top 100, has wins over Texas Tech and Stanford, which is the tiebreaker over those teams.

Old Dominion — Gets the final spot.

Teams left out:
Michigan State — This is the surprise. 9-11 against top 100 and 4-10 in road-neutral games. Non-conference resume was poor.

Missouri State — Misses out yet again. Went 0-5 against Creighton and Southern Illinois.

Texas Tech — Loses a tiebreak to AFA, a bad non-conference record, a poor showing against K-State is their undoing.

Arkansas — Had too much ground to make up.
West Virginia — Went 5-8 against top 100
Stanford — Went 9-12 against top 100, 9-0 against bad teams
Florida State — went 7-12 against top 100
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