After a little time crunching the numbers, I came up with a bracket projection to share with you guys. First, I’m basing my bracket on the following assumptions: Florida beating Arkansas in the SEC title game, North Carolina beating NC State, Kansas beating Texas and Ohio State beating Wisconsin. Disclaimer: If there’s an upset in any of those games, it could impact the bracket.

Now, let me address who I have in and who I have out. Obviously, nobody knows what the committee is thinking, but here’s my best guess:

Final teams in:

Illinois — Some nice wins, no terrible losses, 9-7 road/neutral record, good showing in the conference tournament

Georgia Tech - Has 8 wins against RPI top 50; terrible road record but the quality wins are hard to ignore; also went 7-3 in last 10

Drexel — The 14-5 road/neutral record will be enough to get them in; the Villanova and Syracuse wins are key

Purdue — A 10-8 record against top 100 is just enough to get them in.

Air Force — Solid RPI, 9-7 in road/neutral games, 7-5 against top 100, has wins over Texas Tech and Stanford, which is the tiebreaker over those teams.

Old Dominion — Gets the final spot.

Teams left out:
Michigan State — This is the surprise. 9-11 against top 100 and 4-10 in road-neutral games. Non-conference resume was poor.

Missouri State — Misses out yet again. Went 0-5 against Creighton and Southern Illinois.

Texas Tech — Loses a tiebreak to AFA, a bad non-conference record, a poor showing against K-State is their undoing.

Arkansas — Had too much ground to make up.
West Virginia — Went 5-8 against top 100
Stanford — Went 9-12 against top 100, 9-0 against bad teams
Florida State — went 7-12 against top 100

Here’s my bracket. As you’ll notice, I have Memphis as a No. 2 seed in the East Regional, opposite Ohio State with a potential second-round matchup against Duke.

EAST RUTHERFORD ST. LOUIS

LEXINGTON CHICAGO
1 OHIO STATE 1 KANSAS
16 (FLORIDA A&M VS. CENTRAL CONNEC) 16 NORTH TEXAS

8 VIRGINIA 8 XAVIER
9 SYRACUSE 9 KENTUCKY

NEW ORLEANS SPOKANE
4 TEXAS 4 OREGON
13 WRIGHT STATE 13 TEXAS A&M-CC

5 TENNESSEE 5 NOTRE DAME
12 AIR FORCE 12 OLD DOMINION

SACRAMENTO BUFFALO
3 WASHINGTON STATE 3 PITTSBURGH
14 MIAMI (OHIO) 14 HOLY CROSS

6 BYU 6 CREIGHTON
11 DREXEL 11 GEORGIA TECH

LEXINGTON CHICAGO
7 DUKE 7 USC
10 ILLINOIS 10 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

2 MEMPHIS 2 WISCONSIN
15 BELMONT 15 NIAGARA

SAN ANTONIO SAN JOSE

NEW ORLEANS SACRAMENTO
1 FLORIDA 1 UCLA
16 JACKSON STATE 16 WEBER STATE

8 ARIZONA 8 VILLANOVA
9 WINTHROP 9 INDIANA

WINSTON-SALEM SPOKANE
4 MARYLAND 4 UNLV
13 GEORGE WASHINGTON 13 ORAL ROBERTS

5 LOUISVILLE 5 VIRGINIA TECH
12 DAVIDSON 12 NEW MEXICO STATE

COLUMBUS COLUMBUS
3 TEXAS A&M 3 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
14 LONG BEACH STATE 14 PENNSYLVANIA

6 NEVADA 6 MARQUETTE
11 PURDUE 11 GONZAGA

BUFFALO WINSTON-SALEM
7 BOSTON COLLEGE 7 BUTLER
10 VANDERBILT 10 KANSAS STATE

2 GEORGETOWN 2 NORTH CAROLINA
15 ALBANY 15 EASTERN KENTUCKY