I think Memphis will probably inch closer to North Carolina in tomorrow’s AP poll given the powerful 85-71 victory over Georgetown Saturday. But in analyzing the voting trends, it will be very difficult for the Tigers to claim No. 1 tomorrow.

In last week’s poll, Memphis was 62 points behind North Carolina. Memphis was No. 1 on 19 ballots (including mine), so the Tigers can’t get any more points out of those voters. Memphis was No. 2 on 30 ballots. Of those 30, 28 had North Carolina at No. 1, and I can’t imagine very many will switch their votes, as UNC is still undefeated too. And as far as the other two, Memphis won’t gain any ground since North Carolina will also move up a spot on those ballots.

Memphis was No. 3 on 13 ballots. Out of those ballots, Memphis could gain 7-9 poll points. Memphis was No. 4 on 6 ballots. Out of those, Memphis should gain at least 6 points and perhaps as many as 9 or 10. Memphis was No. 5 on 4 ballots. Out of those, Memphis will gain at least 7 points and as many as 9 or 10. In other words, Memphis will probably make up about 20 points on North Carolina but is probably unlikely to gain more than 30 if you assume that most of the voters who have North Carolina and Kansas ahead of Memphis will keep them ahead.

Anyway, here’s how I voted this week. I moved Texas from No. 2 to No. 4, as they should not be penalized much for losing a road game to Michigan State. I moved the Spartans from No. 9 to No. 6. Pittsburgh moved up from No. 13 to No. 7 for a big win over Duke. New on my ballot this week are Ole Miss at No. 22 and Stanford at No. 24. They replaced Gonzaga and Xavier.

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