A survey of local talk radio hosts and national writers Monday revealed the following about Memphis’ path to the Final Four:
 Mississippi State will be a scary matchup for the Tigers in the second round.
 Oregon will be a scary matchup for the Tigers in the second round.
 Pittsburgh will be a scary matchup for the Tigers in the Sweet Sixteen.
 Michigan State will be a scary matchup for the Tigers in the Sweet Sixteen.
 Texas will be a scary matchup for the Tigers in the Elite Eight.

Seems like a lot of “scary matchups” for a team that has won 33 out of 34 games this season. Look, the ridiculous fear-mongering and over-glorification of every team in Memphis’ bracket has become an annual rite of spring.

Remember last year? It’s easy to look back now and say that the Tigers had an easy second-round game against Nevada, but I remember the buildup to tournament week was all about how Nevada or Creighton would be a handful for the Tigers in the second round. Nevada had been a top-10 team all season and Nick Fazekas was really going to pound Memphis. Or, if it was Creighton, they had just won the Missouri Valley tournament, and you know how dangerous those Missouri Valley teams are.

And then, well, if the Tigers got by that, they had no chance to beat Texas A&M in San Antonio. Texas A&M was a monster team. Acie Law! Josh Carter! The big guy from Lithuania! Billy Gillispie’s team was too tough and physical inside for the Tigers! They had even beaten Kansas, gosh dang…in Lawrence!

But here’s the bottom line: Those teams were good, but Memphis was just better. When the Tigers lost, they lost to a team they weren’t as good as. So if you believe that Memphis is the best team in the country this year, or even just somewhere in the top five, there’s no reason to believe they won’t go to the Final Four regardless of who is in their bracket. Will the Tigers win? Who knows. Crazy stuff happens in this tournament. But if they do lose, it’s not because some “scary matchup” got them.

If there’s one thing I feel pretty safe in saying about the NCAA Tournament, there is no uniform logic that applies to who gets upset early and who doesn’t. In 2006, Kansas looked like a national champion in the Big 12 title game. They lost in the first round to Bradley. That same year, I remember Iowa rolling through the Big 10 tournament. A few days later, Northwestern State had beaten them. You can go on and on like that every year, try to search for patterns or look at matchups or whatever. None of that stuff, truly, could be predicted. Everybody in our business likes to think we’re smarter than the next guy when it comes to picking upsets or talking about matchups but the reality is, it’s just a guess and usually not even an educated one.

Here’s what I know about Memphis, and this is evidence as ironclad as it gets: The Tigers, in three years, haven’t lost to a team they should beat. Will that continue? Who knows. But how exactly that makes them the popular pick to lose early in the tournament is beyond me. When you see a poll where Memphis is the overwhelming choice to be the first No. 1 seed to lose, I can’t help but think it’s based on nothing more than the jersey saying “Memphis” instead of UCLA, Kansas or North Carolina. It certainly can’t be based on the facts.