I have been getting a lot of request for my NCAA Tournament picks, so here goes. I started my picks this year with one primary assumption. The vast majority of brackets I’ve seen from my fellow media types have three of the four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, with Memphis being the one left out. As sort of an iconoclast, this means just one thing to me: Memphis is probably the only No. 1 seed that will get to the Final Four. The world, and especially this tournament, is usually just kind of backwards that way. So click below for my round-by-round picks, with my rationale for each one:

Let’s start in the East. For the first round, I’ve got
- North Carolina (1) over Mt. St. Mary’s (16): No explanation needed for this one.
- Arkansas (9) over Indiana (8): These 8-9 games are hard to pick. Indiana just hasn’t been playing well since the coaching turmoil erupted.
- Notre Dame (5) over George Mason (12): I’ve liked Notre Dame all year long, and I don’t think Mason has a great matchup for Harangody.
- Washington State (4) over Winthrop (13): Winthrop is overseeded here, in my opinion. They should have been a 15.
- St. Joe’s (11) over Oklahoma (6): Oklahoma was overseeded by at least a couple lines. St. Joe’s has the physical toughness to negate Oklahoma’s greatest strength.
- Louisville (3) over Boise St. (14): The Cards have about as easy a path to the Sweet 16 as anybody.
- Butler (7) over South Alabama (10): I like South Alabama a lot, but they play a bit reckless, which plays right into Butler’s hands.
- Tennessee (2) over American (15): The Vols shouldn’t have any trouble here.

- North Carolina (1) over Arkansas (9): The Hogs don’t have enough to keep up, especially in Raleigh.
- Notre Dame (5) over Washington St. (4): I don’t feel great about this pick, but I’ve had Notre Dame penciled into the Sweet 16 for awhile.
- Louisville (3) over St. Joe’s (11): Again, this is almost a walkover to the Sweet 16 for Louisville.
- Butler (7) over Tennessee (2): This is a really brutal matchup in the second round. I hated the way UT played defense in the SEC Tournament, and the Vols don’t want to guard for 30 seconds. But that’s exactly what Butler is going to make them do.

- North Carolina (1) over Notre Dame (5): To beat Carolina, you need a team with great athletes. That’s not Notre Dame.
- Louisville (3) over Butler (7): Louisville just has too much size for Butler.

- Louisville (3) over North Carolina (1): Physical toughness bothers Carolina. Louisville has enough of it to win.

Here’s the Midwest
- Kansas (1) over Portland State (16): No upset alert here.
- Kent St. (9) over UNLV (8): This edition of UNLV isn’t as good as the one last year that went to the Sweet 16.
- Villanova (12) over Clemson (5): Tough draw for Clemson, which has not been to the tournament in a decade.
- Vanderbilt (4) over Siena (13): A lot of experts are targeting this one for an upset. Siena has no size. A.J. Ogilvy will have a field day.
- USC (6) over Kansas St. (11): Despite Michael Beasley, K-State is the worst at-large team in the field in my opinion.
- Wisconsin (3) over Cal St. Fullerton (14): Even though this will be played in Omaha, this isn’t the College World Series.
- Gonzaga (7) over Davidson (10): Everyone is on the Davidson bandwagon. All they’ve proven to me is that they can play good teams close.
- Georgetown (2) over UMBC (15): This one is pretty obvious.

- Kansas (1) over Kent St. (9): The only caveat is that Kent St. played well for about 30 minutes against North Carolina earlier this season.
- Vanderbilt (4) over Villanova (12): Kevin Stallings has been to the Sweet 16 both times he’s taken Vandy to the Tournament.
- Wisconsin (3) over USC (6): Wisconsin is the most underrated team in the field. Everyone’s picking USC, which means they’ll be gone by the end of the weekend.
- Gonzaga (7) over Georgetown (2): I love the way Gonzaga can score the ball, and it’s time for another Gonzaga-like run.

- Vanderbilt (4) over Kansas (1): It’s justice time for the Commodores after getting jobbed against G’Town last year. Kansas’ lack of a go-to scorer will be crucial against a team like Vanderbilt, who has an absolute assassin in Shan Foster.
- Wisconsin (3) over Gonzaga (7): Gonzaga certainly could win this game, but Wisconsin will clamp down defensively.

- Wisconsin (3) over Vanderbilt (4): Bo Ryan just grinds Vandy into the dust in a low-scoring affair.

South Regional
- Memphis (1) over Texas-Arlington (16): No further comment needed
- Oregon (9) over Mississippi St. (8): The Ducks have seniors who are tournament tested, and they won’t play into the Bulldogs’ defensive strength in the paint.
- Michigan St. (5) over Temple (12): I have no confidence in Michigan State, especially in a 5-12 game, but I can’t make a case for Temple either.
- Oral Roberts (13) over Pitt (4): This is my shocker. Pitt has to come down from the high of winning the Big East, then fly cross-country and play a game five days later at altitude against a solid team. Plus, seems like ORU is overdue to win one of these tournament games.
- Marquette (6) over Kentucky (11): I have no clue how Kentucky pulled off this turnaround, but I think it ends here.
- Stanford (3) over Cornell (14): If this were the NCAA hockey tournament, the pick would be different.
- St. Mary’s (10) over Miami (7): Honestly, you could reverse these seeds and no one would notice.
- Texas (2) over Austin Peay (15): It will be nice to see Dave Loss, if only briefly.

- Memphis (1) over Oregon (9): CDR proves he’s better than Detroit’s other college basketball star in Malik Hairston.
- Michigan St. (5) over Oral Roberts (13): With all the turmoil on ORU’s campus, making the Sweet 16 would be just the kind of feel-good story CBS loves, but it probably won’t happen.
- Marquette (6) over Stanford (3): I always pick Marquette to go far, but Tom Crean lets me down every year. I’m going to keep picking him, though, cause one of these days it will pay off.
- Texas (2) over St. Mary’s (10): Interesting matchup because they’ve already played this season. As the favored team, I hate that. It will be closer this time, but Saint Mary’s probably doesn’t have enough to match up.

- Memphis (1) over Michigan St. (5): This Spartans team just doesn’t appear built to go further than the Sweet 16.
- Marquette (6) over Texas (2): Again, it’s a Tom Crean thing. Marquette is physically a tougher team, and if they can turn it into a football game, they win.

- Memphis (1) over Marquette (6): An emotional nightmare for John Calipari, playing Tom Crean for a spot in the Final Four.

West regional
- UCLA (1) over Mississippi Valley St. (16): Easy enough pick.
- BYU (8) over Texas A&M (9): Trent Plaisted is a really, really underrated big man who knows how to play.
- Western Ky (12) over Drake (5): The Valley was a bit down this year, and I promised to pick Western Ky in the first round after I saw them play in Nashville last December.
- UConn (4) over San Diego (13): Much like Louisville, UConn got a walkover to the Sweet 16.
- Purdue (6) over Baylor (11): I would have picked Baylor, but losing to Colorado in the Big 12 tournament was really awful.
- Xavier (3) over Georgia (14): The magical run ends here.
- West Virginia (7) over Arizona (10): One team has lots of toughness, one team has almost none.
- Duke (2) over Belmont (15): Duke gets out of the first round this year.

- UCLA (1) over BYU (8): In a closer game than people expect.
- UConn (4) over Western Kentucky (12): Again, in a close game.
- Xavier (3) over Purdue (6): The Boilermakers aren’t built to get past the second round with all these freshmen.
- West Virginia (7) over Duke (2): If the refs let it happen.

- UConn (4) over UCLA (1): The bracket almost seems too easy for UCLA. With all the lucky breaks they’ve gotten lately, it’s time for the karma to turn.
- West Virginia (7) over Xavier (3): Bobby Huggins will be a folk hero if he can pull this off in his first season.

- UConn (4) over West Virginia (7): UConn just has a little bit more in the all-Big East regional final.

Final Four
Memphis (1) over UConn (4): It’s a rematch of the early-season game. Will Jim Calhoun, with more time to prepare, shelve his ego and play zone? Nah.

Louisville (3) over Wisconsin (3): Wisconsin finally runs into a team that it can’t grind to death.

Championship
Memphis (1) over Louisville (3): Just for fun.