I have to address the Andre Allen suspension first although I’m not exactly crazy about it. I think this will have little to NO effect on this team. They have what Tommy West says all the time, “You’re with us or you’re against us.” They will be fine. You’ll see Willie Kemp (you know the starting PG from 2006-07) and Doneal Mack more. When you see Mack you’ll probably see Antonio Anderson play the point some.

The Bruins have had a much easier road to the Final Four. They have only played one ranked team in Xavier. And it isn’t like they’ve been playing teams on the edge of the top 25 either. According to CollegeRPI.com’s final regular season RPI the average RPI of their opponents up to this point has been 87.25. Here’s a rundown:
Mississippi Valley State 249 Texas A&M 47
Western Kentucky 44 Xavier 9
On the other hand. the Tigers have played 2 top 25 teams in Michigan State and Texas. And their opponents have had an average RPI of 59.25 and they shake out like this:
Texas Arlington 177 Mississippi State 40
Michigan State 15 Texas 5

You can’t really factor what playing Texas in Houston in front of 30,000 Longhorn fans into the degree of difficulty. Even if the UCLA bracket would have held “chalk” (word of the tourney I guess) they would have a much easier road to the Final Four. Here’s what the road could have been for each team.

UCLA in round 2 played the #9 seeded Texas A&M. Since 8/9 seeds are interchangeable the difference between A&M and BYU is tiny at best. The Tigers on the other hand faced the #2 team in the SEC as #9. There is no comparison between TAMU and MSU. MSU is light years better. The Sweet Sixteen is where the Bruins really had an advantage. The Tigers at worst got Michigan State or could have been Pitt. You know the Pitt team that just won the Big East tournament. Had the bracket held UCLA would have had either Drake or UConn. Who would you rather play? The Elite Eight matchup was going to be Duke if it had held and we saw just who weak they were. No disrespect to Xavier but they weren’t a solid 3 in my opinion. The Musketeers played well in the tournament but they aren’t in the same category as Texas. I would have given the X men a chance had they played in Cincinnati. But the NCAA doesn’t like having any of their golden children play lower seeds close to their home.

The key to beating UCLA is slowing down Kevin Love. I know that sounds simple and obvious but I’ll tell you why. Love is both the leading rebounder and leading scorer on this team. He’s put up 38 more points in the NCAA’s than any other teammate. He’s also responsible for 25% of their rebounding total. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and James Keefe also share the rebounding load and between the three of them, they have 93 of the Bruins’ 160 boards. Their starters have accounted for 81% of their points while playing roughly 80% of their games. If you take out the blow out against MVSU then the UCLA starters have carried the load big time by scoring 88% of the points and playing 88% of the minutes. You can see that depth isn’t something the Westwood crew can pride themselves on.

On the other hand the Tigers tend to spread the wealth in both scoring and rebounding. Two guys that have carried the offensive load in the last 4 games, CDR and Rose. When they shut one down the other steps up. The Tigers bench has played 24% of the minutes during the tourney, which has allowed the starters to rest a lot more than the Bruins. Now that number would be a lot lower had Rose taken the stitches. Another advantage is the Tigers have a lot of guys who can score the basketball. During the tournament, the Tigers have 8 guys score in double digits. Willie Kemp and Doneal Mack can come of the bench to provide offense. The UCLA bench can’t match the offensive output of the Tigers bench. Six Tigers have at least 19 rebounds in the 4 games. And the big difference comes from the Tigers guards. Anderson and Rose have combined for 40 boards as opposed to UCLA’s Collison and Shipp who have just 18. It will be interesting to see if the Bruins backcourt will get boards when they need them. But I don’t think they will.

I just don’t see the speed up and down the UCLA roster that I’ve seen the Tigers show. That speed cuts off passing lanes and creates turnovers. The Tigers have forced one more TO (42-41) than the Bruins against better competition. I’d say that Texas and Michigan State take care the ball much better than Western Kentucky and Xavier any day. UCLA has also turned the ball over 58 times in their first four games or 14.5 times a game against defenses that are much inferior than the Tigers. UCLA’s offensive prowess or a lack thereof is probably the whole key to this game. The Bruins have put up more points in the tournament than they averaged in the regular season. They have scored almost 9-points more a game against teams that made mistakes because of their pressure defense, which led to fast break points. The question is how patient will that UCLA defense be with a team that takes care of the ball.

I am amused by the UCLA fans and even some comments made by the team itself about the game two years ago. I’ve heard the “Tigers are essentially the same team.” Yep, a lot of guys are the same but they are two years better. Derrick Rose is way ahead of Darius Washington. That’s not a slam on Washington as much as it is a compliment to Rose. It will benefit the Tigers if the Bruins don’t respect them. And that disrespect has been a recurring theme throughout the tournament.

Westbrook and Shipp could be a problem but haven’t shown in the tournament they can be consistent. They are 23 of 70 from the field during the Dance. That kind of pace will provide the Tigers a lot of breakout buckets. Missed shots help quicken the pace as much as turnonvers. And when you figure Love isn’t exactly a speed demon going down the floor the Tigers will have a big time advantage on any running possessions.

Then again, what do I know? I live in Mississippi.